Insight
South Korean equities, a 2024 in weakness
South Korea has been in the spotlight in recent days because of political tensions sparked by President Yoon Suk-yeol’s declaration of martial law on December 3. Economically, the country is also certainly experiencing a delicate moment. GDP growth is estimated…
U.S. sectors, November’s recap
How did the situation on the S&P500 equity sectors evolve in November after the U.S. elections? We see this by analyzing the returns.
France, not just spreads, equities also lose strength
It is a high-tension December for France, both in terms of the future of public accounts and the financial markets. Slowing economic growth and increased spending on social and energy policies to deal with inflation and the energy transition have…
Year-end shopping, positive indications from consumer cyclical
Looking at the consumer cyclical sector can offer useful insights into year-end shopping trends. This sector, which includes nonessential goods such as clothing, electronics and entertainment, tends to benefit from increased spending during the holidays, supported by discounts and promotions….
From chips to quantum computers?
Rigetti Computing’s recent stock market performance, outperforming NVIDIA’s, may reflect investors’ enthusiasm for the potential of quantum computing. From the chart of the strength ratio between the two stocks, it can be seen that the bullish trend has stalled since…
Coffee, the gold of 2024 in the markets
During 2024, the price of coffee rose significantly, achieving a higher return than gold. In 2024, coffee futures showed significant price increases, mainly for Arabica and Robusta varieties. Several factors underlie these rises, but the main one remains related to…
Strong dollar hurts European stock market
In recent weeks we are witnessing a new strengthening of the dollar against other currencies. This is also affecting the European stock market, whose correlation with the euro/dollar exchange rate is becoming increasingly positive.
Magnificent 7, from a stellar 2024 to a “normal” 2025?
For David Kostin, chief U.S. equity strategist at Goldman Sachs, the S&P500 index is expected to maintain a positive sentiment in 2025, thanks to still-growing earnings, a positive macro picture, and stable bond yields.
Argentina, financial markets reward recovery efforts
Although still in a delicate and in many ways dramatic situation, Argentina has embarked on a path of recovery that seems to be bearing fruit; and financial markets confirm.The economic situation in Argentina remains extremely delicate. Key macroeconomic data seem…
The response of the S&P500 sectors to the U.S. election results
After intense weeks for U.S. politics and the economy let’s take a look at how the 11 sectors that make up the S&P500 moved. A thermometer of investors’ expectations for the coming months. We start by showing the weekly returns…
Between S&P500 and Eurostoxx 50, the former clearly prevails
A comparison between the leading U.S. index, the S&P500, and the index that groups the most important European companies, the Eurostoxx 50, tells of a clear prevalence of the former over the latter.
Municipal bonds vs Treasuries after Trump’s win
One of the effects of Donald Trump’s election victory has been to further boost the growth of yields on Treasuries, U.S. government bonds. According to some analysts, this “rally” could bring yields on 10-year bonds to around 5 percent. It…
Dollar and Swiss franc, robust negative correlation between FED choices and uncertainty
The U.S. dollar (USD) and the Swiss franc (CHF) have a generally negative correlation, influenced by differences in monetary policies and the franc’s role as a safe haven currency. In general, the USD/CHF correlation intensifies negatively in periods of global…
US yield curve is dynamic on election eve
The US government bond yield curve is looking very “dynamic” in the hours leading up to the presidential election (tomorrow) and the FED meeting (Thursday).
Financial markets and business cycle, mixed signals from the three major asset classes
A look at one of the most famous relationships between financial markets and the business cycle. At the moment, no sign of a phase change appears clear from the charts.
S&P500, large companies by capitalization are back on top
The S&P 500 for the past few weeks has returned to being driven by the performance of the largest capitalization companies.
Gold and TIPS strength ratio. In real rates the reason for gold’s rally?
The strength ratio between gold and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS) can give useful insights into inflation expectations, confidence in the ability of government bonds to hedge inflation risk, and, last but not least, real rate trends. On the first point,…
Discretionary consumption and consumer sentiment, recovery attempts
By analyzing the strength relationship between consumer discretionary consumption and the S&P500 index, we can see how consumer sentiment changes over time. The graphs show a recovery started since late summer 2024 and confirm the close relationship with inflation and…
BRICS, weak equities and dollar influence
There is a lot of talk about BRICS and their role on the world economic scenario in the near future. In the financial markets, the strength of this group of countries is not yet apparent, and the influence of the…
China, equities weak in the long run
The new wave of economic stimulus churned out by the government and central bank has restored visibility to China’s stock market, but the numbers in the long run say that investing elsewhere has returned more.
